How to Handicap NBA Games

NBA handicapping relies greatly on statistics, even more so than in NCAA basketball. This is because the talent levels of the players are more on the same plane. In collegiate sports, it is natural for a star player to dominate a lesser team. In the NBA, because there are so few active players as compared to other sports, the talent level is more equal. So rather than looking at what a team with a clear standout is doing, you need to look at the statistics of how a team plays as a whole.

One shining example of this is the Miami Heat. Individually, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are All-Star caliber players. Together, they have not meshed nearly as well as most people expected them to. The Heat have lost several close games this year that you would not suspect given the talent on the team. Still a look at simple stats would reveal the deficiencies within the Heat’s organization.

At 35-14, the Heat are no joke. This is good enough to place them at the top of their division, but a crash-course in NBA handicapping would reveal that this team suffered from some problems. They have three players shooting 15 points or more per game. The rest of the team is far below this mark. As good as the Big Three are, a five against three matchup will favor the team with five solid players more often than not. There are many teams with a deeper roster than the Heat, this is where many of their 14 losses have stemmed from.

NBA handicapping is not any easier than NCAA basketball handicapping, however. It is a much different task, but both leagues have their difficulties that must be overcome. Athletes are bigger and stronger in the NBA; this is something that needs to be accounted for. The games are also longer in the NBA—a score reaching 100 points for a single team in the NCAA is a rare occurrence, but it happens daily in the NBA. This implies that the NBA is more offensive focused, while the NCAA is much more defensive. The strength of each team’s particular style regarding these two factors will determine how they perform against their opponent. In other words, teams with strong offenses will do better in an NBA setting while a team with a strong defense will be more likely to succeed in the college ranks. A good handicapper will adjust their strategy accordingly.

The reverse of this information is that if an NBA team has an extremely strong defense, they can shut down average offenses. So in theory, if a strong defensive team has an average offense, that team can beat better offenses because of the immense strength of their defense.

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